- “Recessions and Recoveries. Multinational Banks in the Business Cycle” (2021) [link],
with Qingqing Cao, Raoul Minetti, Maria Pia Olivero Journal of Monetary Economics
How does the expansion of multinational banks influence the business cycle of host countries? We study an economy where multinational banks can transfer liquidity across borders through internal capital markets but are hindered in their allocation of liquidity by limited knowledge of local firms’ assets. We find that, following domestic banking shocks, multinational banks moderate the depth of the contraction but slow down the recovery. A calibration to Polish data suggests that multinational banks reduce the average depth of recessions by about 5% but increase their duration by 10%. The predictions are broadly consistent with evidence from a large panel of countries.
“The Network Gravity of Global Banking” new draft coming soon,
with Raoul Minetti, Oren Ziv
A substantial fraction of international banking is intermediated through banking hubs and complex multi-national routing. These flows are ignored or unaccounted for, both theoretically and empirically. We develop an N-country DSGE model of lending where banks choose the path of lending through an endogenously formed network of partner institutions in multiple countries. Banking hub countries arise endogenously as central nodes in the intermediation network. The model provides a framework to rationalize observable international statistics with theoretical models of banking gravity. It generates a set of bilateral locational flow of funds that conceptually matches aggregate (BIS LBS) statistics, as distinct from the ultimate demand and supply of lending. Using a series of calibrations for both node and edge shocks, we show that accounting for the network is crucial for understanding the propagation of shocks and the impact of banking consolidation on aggregate fluctuations. The analysis reveals that neglecting the multinational banking network can lead to biased conclusions about the aggregate effects of banking unions.
Does JIT production change the network structure of GVCs? Evidence from Italian firms, (draft coming soon) *with Simona Giglioli